This HFS Business Update is a published by Hanover Financial Services

China 3G handset market to rise by a factor of six in 2010, says  iSuppli: Domestic shipments of 3G handsets in China are expected to amount to 42.97 million units in 2010, up from 7.2 million in 2009, according to iSuppli. The research firm attributed the significant growth to aggressive subsidies from wireless carriers.

China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy: China’s biggest advantage may be its domestic demand for electricity, rising 15 percent a year. To meet demand in the coming decade, according to statistics from the International Energy Agency, China will need to add nearly nine times as much electricity generation capacity as the United States will.

So while Americans are used to thinking of themselves as having the world’s largest market in many industries, China’s market for power equipment dwarfs that of the United States, even though the American market is more mature. That means Chinese producers enjoy enormous efficiencies from large-scale production.
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Chinese Pharmaceutical Stocks To Own Now: The recently announced implementation of China's $126 billion health care reform plan is designed to focus on providing a broader spectrum of healthcare services and pharmaceutical products to all Chinese residents. In this environment, basic health insurance will be offered to a larger portion of the population providing individuals with greater access to a multitude of products and services. During this period of change, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to continue its recent robust expansion.

The pharmaceutical industry is one of the leading industries in China, covering a wide range of applications including synthetic chemicals and drugs, traditional Chinese medicines, supplements and a wide variety of medical devices and related products. But even though China accounts for 20% of the world’s population but accounts for  only 1.5% of the global drug market. 

The domestic pharmaceutical market, although robust, is highly fragmented and inefficient. China had around 3,000 to 6,000 domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers and around 14,000 domestic pharmaceutical distributors as of 2007. The overall industry environment has been transformed for the better over the last 10 years. Entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has brought a stronger patent system, medical insurance is now more widespread, and pharmaceutical-related regulations have been stiffened. China is now expected to become the fifth largest pharmaceuticals market in the world by 2011.

Currently China has about 3,500 drug companies and that number is expected to drop in the coming years due to consolidation as domestic companies compete in the $10 billion market without a dominant leader. 

A handful of these companies have entered the U.S. public markets in recent years. China Aoxing Pharmaceutical Co., Inc., (CAXG) is a specialty pharmaceutical company, engaged in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of various narcotics and pain management products in China similar to Biostar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., (BSPM) which develops, manufactures and markets pharmaceutical and medical nutrient products for a variety of diseases and conditions. China Health Resource, Inc. (CHRI) is a Chinese pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing Dahurian Angelica Root, other traditional Chinese medicines. China YCT International Group, Inc. (CYIG) engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of gingko products and other dietary supplement products

China Yongxin Pharmaceuticals Inc., (CYXN) engages in the wholesale distribution of pharmaceutical products, medical products and equipment, herbal and nutritional supplements, and cosmetics to hospitals, clinics, and retail pharmacies. China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. (NPD) operates almost 3,000 retail drugstores in the China. Its drugstores provide pharmacy services and merchandise, including prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs and nutritional supplements. 

Skystar Bio-Pharmaceutical Company (SKBI) engages in the development, manufacture, and distribution of medicines, vaccines, and other health care and medical care products for poultry, livestock, and domestic pets. Sinovac Biotech Ltd., (SVA) a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases in China.

China's thousands of domestic pharmaceutical companies account for 70% of the market, and the top 10 companies about 20%, according to Business China. In contrast, the top 10 companies in most developed countries control about half the market. Since June 30, 2004, the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) has been closing down manufacturers that do not meet the new GMP standards. Foreign players account for 10% to 20% of overall sales, depending on the types of medicines and ventures included in the count. But sales at the top-tier Chinese companies are growing faster than at Western owned companies
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Employment By The Numbers:  Peak employment for the U.S. economy occurred in December 2007 at 138,152 million, which is a number that probably won't be seen for some time. Consider the fact that the average job creation rate during the Clinton years was 237,000 per month. If we were to get back to that employment level, it would still be the Summer of 2012 before we got back to the December 2007 job totals. 

If we were to get back to the average of the four best years of job creation under G.W. Bush (2004 through 2007, 162,000 per month), it would be the winter of 2013 before we saw a new peak in employment. Then again, it took us fully four years to hit a new peak in employment (from 2/01 to 2/05) after the last relatively shallow recession.

This is obviously the deepest recession since WWII in terms of job losses, and it is also one of the longest recessions on record. The 2001 downturn was the only one that lasted longer in terms of the length of decline, but at that time cumulative job losses only totaled 2.0%; this time, the cumulative losses are 5.2%.

In all but three (notably the last three) previous post-war recessions, not only had the job losses stopped by this point, but total jobs had fully recovered and we had set a new total employment record. The 2001 recession was off-the-charts in terms of length of time to recovery, but the odds are that we will smash that record this time around since we need to be adding about 100,000 jobs a month just to maintain a static level of employment. So my guess is that we're probably looking at a situation where there's going to be a sluggish and boring economy for years to come unless something unusual and unexpected happens.

At Hanover Financial Services, our ultimate goal is our client's success!


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